Race 5 - $5,000,000 Dubai Duty Free sponsored by Dubai Duty Free
Post time - 7:40 P.M. Dubai, 11:40 A.M. New York, 8:40 A.M. Los Angeles
1777 meters (about 9 furlongs), turf
1 - Notional
Trainer: Doug O'Neill, Jockey: Garrett Gomez
His only start on the grass was coming down the hill at Santa Anita last out and he missed beating Cheroot and Moth Ball. Enough said.
2 - Majestic Roi
Trainer: Mick Channon, Jockey: Darryl Holland
This 4-year-old filly makes her 2008 debut for Mick Channon after ending her sophomore season winning the Sun Chariot Stakes [G1] at Newmarket. She did it that day at 16/1 and not only does she face males for the first time, she faces older horses for the first time. It's a tough, tough spot to come back and Channon reported on Friday that he certainly favors Youmzain much more than this filly.
3 - Floral Pegasus
Trainer: Tony Cruz, Jockey: Gerard Mosse
It is often rare to find a horse that, at this level, has ten races in the last 14 months and all were at the same track. In Hong Kong, however, your choices are limited and Floral Pegasus fits that with a few others at the DWC meet. He repeatedly fails to get over the top and all three of his 2007 wins came in the first two months of the year. The Dubai Duty Free will be his seventh race since October and he grabs a piece regularly but rarely wears the flowers. In this field, that makes him a poor win candidate.
4 - Seachange
Trainer: Ralph Manning, Jockey: Ted Durcan
This mare is one you just have to love. She has raced in open company throughout her past performance lines and is used to facing the opposite sex. That hasn't stopped her from winning four G1 turf races in her last ten starts over distances from six furlongs to a mile. She was fourth beaten a neck when going ten furlongs in a G1 in New Zealand, so all the talk about distance limitations is bogus to me. Fortunately, she had a chance to get the Dubai ground under her legs when coming in early for the Jebel Hatta [G2] on Super Thursday and was prominent throughout, just to get passed in the final yards. As we've mentioned before, she did that when breaking from the extreme outside stall and that may certainly have been worth the two lengths which was here margin of defeat. All reports indicate she has been shining on the backstretch and looked grand Thursday morning on the turf course. She is almost assuredly going to be the pacesetter and Ted Durcan is capable of slowing her down and spurting clear...if she's good enough. Gate to wire on the turf, routing, at Nad al Sheba is near impossible. Yet, with a decent post draw, William Hill cut her odds in half from 40/1 to 20/1 and her best wins came when she made all the running. Get excited in Kiwi-land, she has a chance at a likeable price.
5 - Admire Aura
Trainer: Hiroyoshi Matsuda, Jockey: Katsumi Ando
Off the board only once in his life and getting the best draw in six races helps make Admire Aura an interesting contender. His trainer won the 2007 Dubai Duty Free with Admire Moon and you have to think that if Matsuda-san can prepare one Duty Free winner with similar form, he can do it twice. His last race at the distance would have been a Duty Free record from a time standpoint. This is his fourth race following a seven month break over the summer as he recovered from a bone chip suffered when third in the Japanese Derby. I think he will be forgotten in the American wagering and is a well-developing chance here with solid value.
6 - Finsceal Beo
Trainer: Jim Bolger, Jockey: Kevin Manning
She was fabulous in the first half of 2007 and wasn't as spectacular when facing older fillies or open company. Gaelic for "Living Legend," Finsceal Beo ran well first off the layoff in winning the English 1000 Guineas and had a memorable tilt against Darjina in the French 1000 Guineas. I'm thrilled to see her here, but doubt she'll be the winner.
7 - Archipenko
Trainer: Mike deKock, Jockey: Kevin Shea
Returned sprinting at Nad al Sheba following a September layoff, a move that trainer deKock has used several times this year with success. Archipenko was tenth in that sprint and won the Al Fahidi Fort [G2] two weeks later in preparations for the Duty Free. Overall, however, his efforts against the best company have been lackluster, helping lead to the surprise of his last win. I doubt we'll see an improvement to get over the top.
8 - Niconero
Trainer: David Hayes, Jockey: Craig Williams
Does a 6-year-old gelding come into his best form in his 6-year-old year? It would seem to be true in the case of Niconero, a nose away from back-to-back G1 wins over seven furlongs and a mile in his last two starts. When you combine the best races in your recent form in a span of four weeks, plus a trip to Dubai, plus an expectation to do even better than before with a win here...it doesn't add up to the best recipe for success. Granted, this is probably the best time for Niconero considering his recent form, but it all seems like too much in a short time.
9 - Creachadoir
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor, Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
It was the bob of a nose that kept Creachadoir from getting his first G1 win in his fifth attempt when he was second beaten a nose to Good Ba Ba in the Hong Kong Mile. He was knocking on the door with some of the best and returns to the races for the first time since the nose defeat. McEvoy gets the mount as Dettori goes elsewhere. I'll wait a race and catch him in Europe this summer.
10 - Literato
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor, Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Once again, Godolphin stable mates draw next to each other. Frankie lands here aboard the son of Kendor who has never been out of the exacta in 11 lifetime tries. Impressive. Literato never blows them away and I doubt he would do that even if he wins, but I don't think he will. He bested Doctor Dino in his last start, the Champion Stakes [G1] at Newmarket over ten furlongs. Originally intended to go in the Sheema Classic, Literato shifts here to a shorter distance. All of his graded efforts came in races of ten furlongs on more. Godolphin proclaimed their best chance of the day to be in the World Cup with Jalil. Hmmm - 11/11 in the exacta and they think their best chance is in the World Cup going against the world's top rated horse. I'm passing on Literato.
11 - Darjina
Trainer: Alain de Royer-Dupre, Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
She beat Ramonti, George Washington, plus today's racemates Linngari and Archipenko in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp [G1]. Strangely enough, she is unbeaten in her home country and has never been better than third outside France. First up since her third place finish in the Hong Kong Mile, Darjina will need to get an extra 177 meters on another course away from home. She's worked on the dirt all this week but I found nothing earthshattering about her appearance one way or another. Lacking that inspiration, I'm remiss to back her.
12 - Vodka
Trainer: Katsuhiko Sumii, Jockey: Yutaka Take
Truly, a beautiful horse. She looks like a filly, which is saying something when you can look at a female horse and just know she looks like a lady (insert Breeders' Cup Ladies opinion here). She beat the boys in the Japanese Derby last May and was never quite the same, finishing no better than third and that was her lone start against her own sex. The past was kind to Vodka, a uniquely named daughter of Tanino Gimlet, and she will back up to nine furlongs after having traversed longer distances in her recent form. Many of the Australians have really taken to Vodka but I remain skeptical. I would be surprised to see her in the enclosure.
13 - Bullish Luck
Trainer: Tony Cruz, Jockey: Brett Prebble
Third on the dirt in the Dubai World Cup last year, Bullish Luck finally got another win when annexing the Centenary Vase [G3] at Sha Tin in February. The rest of his form is lacking and he was behind both Viva Pataca and Floral Pegasus last time. If you don't like Floral Pegasus, it's tough to support Bullish Luck in this field.
14 - Jay Peg
Trainer: Herman Brown, Jockey: A Marcus
A South African champion, Jay Peg has regularly improved in three starts in Dubai. Trainer Herman Brown added blinkers last time out and was closer than in the past. He was nose to nose with Seachange for a while in the Jebel Hatta and finishes four spots better than her, but it was just one length difference. At a price, Jay Peg could turn some heads when the finish line looms. I've been in his camp throughout the DIRC and a return to his South African success would not be crazy.
15 - Lord Admiral
Trainer: Charles O'Brien, Jockey: Mick Kinane
The Pennsylvania-bred winner of the Al Rashidiya [G3] and Jebel Hatta [G2] over the course and distance is being slapped in the face on the lines, getting 50-1 from Coral and on many others, increasing with the wide draw. He runs on from deep in the backfield but has little pace to run at.
16 - Linngari
Trainer: Herman Brown, Jockey: Ryan Moore
For the second consecutive year, Linngari has been saddled with the widest draw in the Dubai Duty Free. It didn't stop him from a huge run last year, however, checking in second and flying up the rail (yes, the rail), to be beaten just a half-length. Linngari was well-beaten in the Al Fahidi Fort [G2], a race he won last year, after having taken a $175,000 handicap on the second night of the DIRC. Maybe he needed the bounce after a short layoff but to expect him to beat this field may be asking too much.
Dubai Duty Free Selections:
1st - #5 Admire Aura
2nd - #4 Seachange
3rd - #10 Literato
Leave a comment