Race 3 - $2,000,000 United Arab Emirates Derby, sponsored by Al Naboodah Group
Post time - 6:15 P.M. Dubai, 10:15 A.M. New York, 7:15 A.M. Los Angeles
1800 meters (about 9 furlongs), dirt
1 - Cocoa Beach
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor, Jockey: Ted Durcan
She really blew me away when winning the UAE Oaks and the UAE 1000 Guineas. The confidence from Saeed bin Suroor was amazing considering that he usually does not speak with the level of confidence he did with this gorgeous Chilean filly. I sincerely hope she comes to the United States and gives it a go. Unfortunately, I believe her closing speed will not be enough to catch the males in this one.
2 - Numaany
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor, Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
The son of AP Indy has been disappointing since coming to Dubai following two fall races in New York. His long stride may suit him over longer distances and an observer of the DIRC even told me on Thursday that Numaany might be Godolphin's Belmont Stakes horse. Others rate higher in the UAE Derby.
3 - My Indy
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor, Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Appeared just a bit skittish when exercising for the media on Wednesday morning and has twice finished behind the deKock horses drawn to the outside. An on-the-board finish is not crazy, but if he didn't win earlier in the DIRC, I don't see why he would now.
4 - Massive Drama
Trainer: Dale Romans, Jockey: Garrett Gomez
This big son of Kafwain has been impressive on the track at Nad al Sheba and much of the international racing media is discounting him thinking he is a synthetic track wonder. Of course, his maiden win came during the fall Breeders' Cup meeting at Monmouth on the muddy main track against seven others. The races he's run in America over the California surfaces were indeed decent and should have given him a solid foundation to run well here. I expect him to go to the front and if he can slow it down to a pace more manageable than the ones he's faced in California, he could take it all the way. It doesn't hurt that this Dale Romans charge has looked like an imposing youngster in the mornings.
5 - Rock Ascot
Trainer: Doug Watson, Jockey: Gary Birrer
Multiple G1 winner in Uruguay getting his first run in Dubai and both of his G1 wins came over 10 and 12 furlongs. Ahhh, South America racing! These imports have run their best races when they ran their first races in Dubai and you might be inclined to think this one is similar. I learned today that Doug Watson just received the horse a few weeks ago and the impression I received in a conversation about Rock Ascot was that he was "a mess when he got here."
6 - Ukrainian
Trainer: A Cintra Pereira, Jockey: Richard Mullen
Brazilian has raced over the course of the DIRC and put in some decent placings at juicy prices. Doing it here against the best of the class is unlikely.
7 - Light Green
Trainer: Pedro Nickel Filho, Jockey: Mick Kinane
This filly broke her maiden on the main track in Brazil and was sent to the turf. She's won two G1 starts and was a strong third to Sun Classique in her Dubai debut in February. The problem is that it looks like she was beaten only more than a length but if Sun Classique didn't have more traffic trouble than the Sheikh Zayed Road on a Thursday evening at rush hour...she would have won by many more. Light Green is a solid filly, but she'd buck history if she got the job done here.
8 - Royal Vintage
Trainer: Mike deKock, Jockey: Kevin Shea
Career start number five comes in the UAE Derby and he would have a perfect record if his first Dubai start, the UAE 2000 Guineas was about 1620 meters instead of 1600 meters. He absolutely catapulted past stablemate Honour Devil in that go and came back to beat him a head in the Al Bastikiya last time out. He stands to have his best run yet in this year's UAE Derby and Kevin Shea, the top rider for Mike deKock, continues to stay in the saddle. Royal Vintage is the pick.
9 - Honour Devil
Trainer: Mike deKock, Jockey: John Murtagh
This son of Honour and Glory looked great to get the DIRC going but found the going tougher when facing his stablemate drawn to the inside. He was game after Royal Vintage passed him in the Al Bastikiya but I will opt against his lower price, at least in the current UK wagering.
10 - Zain Alma Ainee
NON RUNNER
11 - Strike The Deal
Trainer: Jeremy Noseda, Jockey: Ryan Moore
This is the first start for the Noseda trainee following a strong fourth place finish in the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. The son of Van Nistelrooy broke his maiden on the Polytrack at Lingfield in June 2007 and this actually may be a test to see if he comes back to America for more dirt runs. As it is, this is a tall task first off the shelf.
12 - Iide Kenshin
Trainer: Mitsugu Kon, Jockey: S Fujita
Two dirt starts and two dirt wins for the Japanese shipper. His turf form has been poor so it makes sense to give the son of Thunder Gulch a chance on the dirt...but in the UAE Derby? Being in the top half of the field here might be tough.
UAE Derby selections:
1st - #8 Royal Vintage
2nd - #4 Massive Drama
3rd - #9 Honour Devil
4th - #7 Light Green
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